Yield Curve Normal, Nerves Are Not: Three Central Banks Decide This Week

The market is flashing enough amber lights this week that sitting unhedged is a choice, not a default. The VIX (a gauge of expected volatility) rose to 17.1 and is trending higher, meaning option premiums are still relatively cheap — that favors buying protective puts rather than selling them. The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed 24 basis points over the last ten sessions to 4.96%, squeezing equity valuations at a moment when the trailing P/E (price relative to earnings) sits at the 74.6th percentile of its own 20-year history. The RSI (a momentum gauge) at 47.32 confirms fading buying pressure. With the Fed, BOE, and BOJ all deciding this week, buy protective puts on broad exposure and watch the 4.96% 10-year level — a break above 5% could accelerate selling.