It's All Just The Same Thing 🔄

The market is pressing all-time highs while the underlying foundation is quietly eroding. The 10-year Treasury yield (a benchmark borrowing cost) has risen 9 basis points over the past 10 sessions, tightening financial conditions at the margin. The trailing P/E (price relative to actual earnings) sits at the 90.4th percentile of 240 months of history — the market has been cheaper than this more than 90% of the time. Core PCE inflation (the Fed's preferred price gauge) at 3.3% keeps rate cuts off the table, removing the multiple-expansion fuel. With the VIX (a market fear gauge) at 14.81, protective puts are cheap — use them to hedge concentrated growth positions, and watch the 10-year yield for any further acceleration above recent levels.